China's Steel Sector Navigates Policy Reset Amid AI-Driven Upgrade and Green Transformation

1. Policy & Regulatory Focus: "Steady Growth" and "Anti-Internal Competition" as Dual Main Themes

Facing pressures of consumption peaking and heightened global trade friction, the state has introduced the *Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)*, setting an annual average growth target of approximately 4% for industry value-added output. The plan explicitly demands strengthening steel product export management, optimizing the export product structure, and maintaining export order to guide products, equipment, technology, and services to "go global" collaboratively. Simultaneously, the "anti-internal competition" policy further necessitates the industry to break free from the inertia of crude capacity expansion and shift towards promoting supply-demand balance and improving supply efficiency. This is underscored by data: from January to May 2025, while the industry maintained stable overall operations, crude steel net exports surged by 8.79 million tons year-on-year, also exposing the structural contradictions behind volume growth.

2. Core Technology Path: "AI+Steel" Drives the Formation of New Quality Productive Forces

Technology, particularly AI, is becoming the core engine for industrial upgrades. China's steel industry has moved from single-point to full-process intelligence, with 95.1% of enterprises incorporating digital transformation into their overall development strategies. In smart workshops, AI visual inspection systems can identify surface defects as small as 0.02mm on steel in 0.1 seconds. In production management, AI-assisted R&D systems can shorten the development cycle for new high-end special steel products by 56%. Advanced steel enterprises have introduced AI large model platforms to provide core services like production data analysis and equipment fault diagnosis. This digital-intelligent shift not only enhances efficiency but also significantly contributes to energy conservation and carbon reduction; the application of digital technology in steel energy conservation alone can achieve a 15% reduction.

3. Green Premium & Future Outlook: From Super-Low Emissions to Global Leadership in Low-Carbon Standards

Green and low-carbon has become a "mandatory question" for the global steel industry. China is promoting what is described as the world's most stringent ultra-low emission standards, with an investment exceeding 300 billion yuan in ultra-low emission renovation. It is expected that over 80% of steel capacity will complete the renovation by the end of 2025. More critically, the low-carbon emission steel evaluation standards researched and released by China have gained recognition from multiple international professional organizations, indicating an initial lead in establishing future green trade rules. This provides a "green premium" foundation for high-value steel exports and aligns with international trends such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

4. Market Dynamics and Strategic Response: Seizing New Demand in a "Post-Volume" Era

With traditional real estate and infrastructure steel demand weakening, the industry must seek new growth points in high-end manufacturing. Leading companies are responding to new demands in advanced manufacturing, such as new energy vehicles and robotics, with breakthroughs in specialized materials. For instance, ultra-thin silicon steel for new energy vehicles and special materials for humanoid robots have achieved global首发 (first release). At the same time, actively promoting the application of steel structures in buildings, bridges, and other fields, and stimulating domestic demand potential are also important ways to digest high-quality capacity.

Conclusion

Faced with a complex and severe external environment and internal transformational pressures, China's steel industry is moving away from the extensive "volume-first" growth model through the triple drive of policy guidance, technological empowerment, and green standards. The future competition landscape will be determined by the ability to produce intelligent, efficient, and low-carbon high-end products, as well as the capacity to integrate into and lead the new global green trade system.